Date & Time: 06/15/2021 9:25 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
Happy official start to Monsoon 2021! It’s a fitting start this year with a low grade Monsoon pattern in place promoting extreme heat across the lower deserts and possible early season storm activity. Looking at the big picture, the summer ridge has shifted north across AZ and into the Four Corners region where it will remain for most of the work week. High temperatures will easily reach into the 113˚F-119˚F range each day with higher values on clear days and lower values when we have increased smoke/cloud cover. An excessive heat warning will remain valid into this weekend. In regards to daily storm chances, limited moisture will likely keep most storms across the higher terrain areas north and east of the Valley, though we could see some activity spill into the lower deserts with gusty/dusty outflows and a few sprinkles as the main impacts.
For today plan on mainly sunny skies, despite hazy conditions from smoke, through the afternoon hours. Daytime temperatures will quickly warm into the 114˚F-117˚F range around the Valley. East/southeast winds will generally remain in the 5-10mph range with localized gustier conditions this evening. As mentioned above, higher terrain areas north and east of the Valley will likely see some afternoon/evening t-storms and some of this activity will try and move west onto the lower deserts with gusty outflows and perhaps some sprinkles to our far eastern zones.
For tomorrow plan on a near repeat of today with sunny/hazy skies to start before increasing clouds into the afternoon/evening. Afternoon highs will climb into the 113˚F-117˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will again hover in the 5-10mph range with localized gusts around 15-20mph into the evening hours. We’ll see another round of higher terrain storms with some of this activity trying to move west into the lower deserts during the evening hours. Moving into Thursday and Friday we’ll see a continuation of extreme temperatures and low grade storm pattern across our region. We’ll have more on this tomorrow.