Yesterday’s forecast panned out well with only isolated t-storm activity around the outskirts of the County during the overnight hours. Heading into today the pattern remains nearly the same with E/NE steering flow and substantial moisture across southcentral AZ (a common rim to valley setup). However, there are limiting factors: drier air across far eastern AZ hindering high terrain activity and a strongly capped Phoenix Valley environment. Most likely scenario keeps the Valley dry with activity instead focused to the north and south of the County. Moving ahead, we’ll have a similar version of this setup through Friday before “Hotter” changes to the forecast for this weekend.
For today plan on mostly sunny skies through the afternoon as temperatures climb into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will hover in the 5-10mph range outside of any localized greater gusts this evening from outflow boundaries moving into the County. As mentioned above, it’s going to take a strong colliding outflows to initiate lower desert storms today, otherwise plan on another round of evening/overnight activity around the peripheries of the County. Conditions will be monitored closely throughout the day.
Little change is expected in the forecast for tomorrow with a low grade Monsoon pattern in place. Daytime highs will again warm into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley under mostly sunny skies. Isolated afternoon/evening storm chances will continue with the best odds across the higher terrain areas N/E of the Valley and again across southern AZ. Moving ahead, it’s looking likely that drier and hotter conditions are in store by this upcoming weekend. More details on this in the coming days.